The Frontier File

A public research notebook for the expensive edge of the future.

AI infrastructure. Space. Robotics. Power. Nuclear. Quantum. Emerging technology. One concentrated portfolio — and the reasoning behind the decisions.

Aggressive growth · Asymmetric upside · Catalysts over vibes

Mapping terrain, not handing out treasure maps. Research notes only. Not financial advice.

Five Percent Is a Competitor.

The Fed raised rates. Rocket Lab raised capital. And I caught myself wondering whether the portfolio had become too safe. The next dollar needs a better argument than the last green candle.

• Macro
• Portfolio Process
• AI Infrastructure
• Power & Nuclear
• Space

Where the evidence has been moving.

• № 018September 12–13, 202618 min read

  The Future Has a Carrying Cost.

  Oracle proved the AI build is real—and showed what it takes to finance. Rocket Lab flew again and found another piece of the space stack it can sell today. Inflation firmed, oil moved above $107, Treasury yields nearly touched 5%, and my portfolio learned the next lesson after proof: time itself has a price.

• № 017September 5–6, 202611 min read

  Proof Is Not A Multiple.

  Nvidia and Broadcom confirmed the AI build. Rocket Lab flew. Planet printed a better business. The market still reserved the right to pay scarcity and punish timing. Receipts arrived. The rent stayed due.

• № 016August 30, 202613 min read

  The Future Passed the Test.

  Nvidia proved the AI build is still accelerating. Jackson Hole reminded the market that real does not mean cheap. The technology passed. The discount rate did not.

• № 015August 23, 202614 min read

  The Market Raised the Rent.

  The long bond hit 2007 territory, semiconductors cracked, and the portfolio’s latest moves made one thing clear: the future still works — the market is just charging more to wait for it.

Every issue looks for five things.

1. 01What actually changed?
2. 02Which thesis gained or lost evidence?
3. 03Where is the bottleneck?
4. 04What catalyst comes next?
5. 05Does any of it deserve more capital?

The goal isn't to predict every wiggle in the market. It's to document how conviction changes when the evidence changes.

The rules the portfolio actually runs on.

I'm Alex Oklesson, a self-directed retail investor running a concentrated frontier-technology portfolio with a strong growth and asymmetric-upside orientation.

Seasoning, not the steak

Speculative names stay small on purpose. Position size is the risk control.

Catalysts over vibes

Dated events earn weight. Narrative alone does not.

Cheap ≠ distressed

A low price is not a thesis. Broken economics stay broken.

Four tiers

Core · Growth · Speculative · Moonshot — each with its own sizing rules.

Explicit exclusions

What I refuse to own is written down, not improvised.

A historical published mark, not a live tracker.

Snapshot date:

Day 104 / July 13, 2026

Last published position count:

Issue #12 · August 1, 2026

Positions at that publication:

21

Tiers:

Core 7 · Growth 7 · Speculative 6 · Moonshot 1

These are historical figures from a previously published issue, not a live or current brokerage total. The last fully reconciled mark was July 13, 2026; the position count comes from Issue #12 (August 1, 2026). Nothing here is updated in real time. Research notes only — not financial advice.

BWXT: The Quiet Position With the Loudest Opportunity

• The Precision Components Group acquisition adds more than 500,000 square feet of U.S. manufacturing capacity.
• Potential action: an approximately $100 post-earnings addition only if guidance, backlog and cash conversion remain intact. No purchase has been made.

19 issues, June 1, 2026 to now.

The whole record stays public — including the calls that aged badly.