One retail account, one frontier-tech thesis, documented in public. This week the two biggest overhangs of the whole journey resolved in four days.
Wednesday the Dow fell 900 points because the U.S. signaled fresh strikes on Iran. Friday SpaceX went public in the biggest IPO in human history. Monday the U.S. and Iran announced a peace deal and the whole tape went vertical. If you'd shown me that sequence in March and asked me to keep a concentrated frontier-tech account 100% green through it, I'd have told you to be serious, buddy.
But that's exactly what happened. The two storylines I've been writing about since Issue #1 — the space economy catalyst and the war that kept capping every rally — both paid out in the same week. SpaceX priced at $135, opened at $150, and is now trading near $178. Oil collapsed from the high-$90s back toward $80 the instant the ceasefire became a deal. Every rate-sensitive name I own exhaled at once.
This issue is about what it means when your two biggest catalysts hit at the same time — and why that's exactly the moment to get disciplined, not greedy.
The map before the positions.
The story of the week was sequencing. The market spent Wednesday pricing in war and Monday pricing in peace. When oil fell five percent in a session, it pulled the inflation fear — and the yield pressure that's been the real enemy of growth multiples — down with it.
Locked in: 2 shares of SPCX at the $135 IPO price — an actual allocation, filled below the $150 open. Right-sized at ~4% of the book, no concentration drama. Held through: a 900-point Dow scare and a chip rotation, without selling a single conviction name.
"The biggest IPO in history opened at a 19% pop. The smart move was getting the allocation — not chasing the open."
Everybody's going to tell a SpaceX story this week. Mine is boring on purpose: I got two shares at the $135 offer price and I'm not adding a third at $178. The day-one pop minted headlines and trillionaires, but the four-analyst consensus already pegs fair value near $164 — below where it trades now. A limited float and pure FOMO are setting the price, not fundamentals.
This is the discipline the whole account is built on. You ride the catalyst through the proxies you already own — RKLB up 66%, PL up 54% — and you treat the actual IPO as a small, clean position, not a hero bet. Getting filled at the institutional price is the win. Chasing a vertical move on day three is how the people who "got in early" end up underwater by autumn. I'll let it run. I won't fall in love with it up here.
Here's a thing I have to keep straight for myself, so I'll keep it straight for you. When I added the SpaceX shares, my headline return percentage actually dipped — from ~44% to ~42% — even though my dollar gains went up. That's not a loss. That's just math: a brand-new +19% position dilutes a blended average that was being carried by +74% and +66% monsters. Adding fresh capital always does that.
I'm saying it out loud because the percentage is the number people screenshot, and it's the easiest one to fool yourself with. Total dollars invested: $5,270. Total book value: ~$7,691. That's the real scoreboard — +46% on capital deployed — and it's the one I'll keep reporting, up or down, instead of cherry-picking whichever framing looks best that week.
The day I start massaging the numbers to look like a guru is the day this stops being worth reading.
Seventy-six days. $5,270 deployed, ~$7,691 on the board, every one of twenty positions green, and the two storylines that defined this account since the start — the space catalyst and the war — both resolved in the same week.
But the run-up was never the test. The test is what I do now, at the top, with the macro overhang gone and a euphoric tape begging me to chase. The answer is the same as it's always been: hold the winners, right-size the new IPO, respect the lock-up date, keep the powder dry for the Marvell and Dell pullbacks that this rally might not even give me. There's always another setup. There is never another version of the discipline that got me here.
The IPO window is open — OpenAI and Anthropic are lining up behind SpaceX. The peace dividend is real. The frontier is doing exactly what I bet it would do in Issue #1. Now I just have to not get cute about it.
See you next Sunday, buddy. — Alex