Skip to main content
The Frontier File · Issue #8 · July 7 2026

I Traded The Steak
For The Rocket.

One concentrated retail account, one frontier-tech thesis, documented in public. After five issues of promising to trim Micron, I finally did it — and then did something with the money that I'm not sure was discipline or just a spicier bet.

+66%
On capital · est · Day 98
MU trim done ✓
$8,743
Book value · est
19 / 20
Positions green
Cold Open

The trim I kept promising — and the twist

I finally did it. After five straight issues of writing "Micron is too big, I need to trim it" and then not trimming it, I sold half my position at Monday's close — cutting MU from about 21% of my book down to roughly 10%. The single-name risk I'd been narrating for a month is materially reduced. A bad Micron day, like the 5% drop it took Tuesday on the Samsung-driven chip selloff, no longer yanks my whole account around. That part I'm proud of.

Here's the twist, and I'm putting it up top because burying it would be dishonest: I didn't do the boring disciplined thing with the proceeds. I didn't raise cash, and I didn't buy the quality names on my watchlist. I rolled almost the entire ~$940 straight into SpaceX — the day before it joined the Nasdaq-100 — taking my SPCX stake from one token share up to a real ~12% position.

So I solved one single-name concentration and deepened a thematic one. I traded part of a profitable, proven memory winner for a newly public, aspiration-priced rocket. There's a genuine case for it. There's also a genuine case that I just swapped steak for something spicier and called it discipline. This issue is me being honest about both.

The Thesis Board

Where my head is at

The map before the positions. firing   mixed/watching   next-wave seed   headwind.

MU Concentration RESOLVED · 21% → 10%
Done. Trimmed half at Monday's close into strength. Micron is still a conviction hold at ~10% — I kept the thesis, I cut the size. Five issues of talk, finally an action. The book is healthier for it.
Space Economy SPCX · RKLB · PL · MDA · ASTS ≈ 32%
NEW concentration. Rolling MU money into SPCX pushed the space cluster to ~32% of the book, anchored by a volatile IPO. The consolidation thesis (RKLB/Iridium) is real — but a third of my account in one theme is the thing to watch now.
SPCX specifically ~12% · the spicy bet
Bought near the post-IPO pullback and immediately tested by a sell-the-news index-add day. The Nasdaq-100 inclusion creates mechanical ownership demand, but Tuesday proved that passive demand is not a floor. The business remains unprofitable and the stock remains volatile. Strategic asset; speculative position. Both true.
Power & Grid BWXT · OKLO · CENX
Still the H2 thesis. Data-center power demand hitting records; the AI bottleneck moving to electricity. My beachhead holds while I research grid, cooling, and storage.
Chips / Memory MU · STX · NVDA · ARM
Samsung's "only" 19-fold profit jump disappointed and triggered another chip selloff. Repricing, not breaking — but the volatility is exactly why trimming MU into it felt right.
Rates dovish, pre-CPI
Hike odds low after soft jobs. But June CPI on the 14th is the real referee, with bank earnings the same day. The calm before the number.
The Week in One Tape

Just the numbers

MarkerLevelRead
Dow rotation could not hold the close
-0.35% Tue
Nasdaq chip rout deepened
-1.23% Tue
SPCX index inclusion, sell-the-news
~12% of book
-5.3% Tue
MU Samsung / AI repricing
0.79 shares
about -6% Tue
Samsung 19× profit forecast, expectations still won
Seoul
-6.9% close
WTI Crude bouncing
~$69
week's best

Monday ripped — Dow above 53,000 for the first time, chips rebounding, my book near a high. Tuesday gave some back as Samsung's merely-great earnings triggered another chip wobble. The whipsaw is the point: this is a tape that rewards owning quality and sizing it so the daily noise can't hurt you. Which is exactly the lens I used on the Micron trim.

The Portfolio Report

The whole book — post-swap

SPCX
~flat
NEW ~12% · Nasdaq-100
MU
+251%
Trimmed to ~10% ✓
RKLB
+85%
Iridium consolidator
PL
+69%
Sat imagery
STX
+50%
AI storage
CENX
+48%
Power/materials
BWXT
+41%
Nuclear/power
AEVA
+40%
LiDAR
GOOGL
+36%
Dow member
MDA
+32%
Space systems
ASTS
+31%
Sat connect
ACHR
+28%
eVTOL
JOBY
+28%
eVTOL
NVDA
+23%
Repriced
AMZN
+20%
Cloud · robots
SOFI
+10%
Fintech rails
OKLO
+7%
Nuclear/power
QBTS
+7%
Quantum seed
SERV
+4%
Delivery bots
ARM
flat
Was lone red

This issue's moves

Executed: sold half of MU (~$940) at Monday's close, cutting it from ~21% to ~10% of the book. Redeployed: the full proceeds into SPCX near ~$162, taking SPCX from a token share to roughly 12%. The result: single-name MU risk materially reduced; space-theme concentration deepened to roughly 32%. All portfolio marks remain estimates based on the supplied ledger, pending brokerage reconciliation.

Portfolio shape now: the book is less dependent on one company, but more dependent on one story. That is an improvement in single-name risk and a deterioration in thematic balance. The next discipline is not necessarily selling SPCX immediately; it is refusing to add more space exposure and rebuilding cash from future trims or contributions.

+66%
On capital · est
$8,743
Book value · est
10%
MU now (was 21)
~32%
Space theme ⚠️
~4×
vs S&P · 98 days
The Catalyst Calendar

We position around dates

Tue Jul 7
SPCX joins the Nasdaq-100 — ~$4.3B in passive index inflows begin
My position
Wed Jul 8
FOMC June minutes — first look behind the Warsh hold
High
Mon Jul 14
June CPI + Q2 bank earnings open — the real referee
Critical
If SPCX runs
Reassess SPCX if it grows beyond a defensible 10–12% position — same rule, new name
My move
Jul 28–29
FOMC decision — hold or hike under Warsh
Critical
Q3 2026
Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) spin-off — the GE-style unlock
On deck
The Hot Take

"Selling a proven winner to buy an unproven one is either the dumbest thing you can do or the whole point of frontier investing. The difference is entirely in the entry."

On paper, rotating out of Micron — a profitable memory leader with a proven AI-demand engine — and into SpaceX — a newly public, unprofitable, aspiration-priced company — sounds reckless. The actual trade is more nuanced. I harvested part of a 250%+ winner, kept half the MU position, and bought SPCX after a meaningful pullback just as the stock entered the Nasdaq-100. That gives the position a real institutional catalyst. It does not turn mechanical index demand into a valuation floor.

That's frontier logic when it works: harvest from a winner whose weight became the risk, then redeploy into an asymmetric asset whose public-market story is still being priced. But the dangerous sentence is “Micron's easy money is behind it.” I do not actually know that. I know only that MU became oversized and SPCX became newly interesting. The first fact justified the trim. The second justified a position — not necessarily the full redeployment. If this ages badly, the mistake will not be trimming Micron. It will be confusing a good destination with the only destination.

Buddy, Real Talk

Was that discipline, or discipline-shaped?

Let me grade my own trade honestly, because the win column and the worry column are both real. The MU trim itself: overdue and directionally correct. I cut a 21% position to 10% into strength, kept the thesis, and killed the risk of one name running my account. High marks. If the issue ended there, it'd be my most disciplined week yet.

But the destination is where I have to be honest with myself. The disciplined version of this trade parks half those proceeds in cash and buys a quality name on the watchlist. Instead I put nearly all of it into a single volatile IPO and pushed my space theme to a third of the whole book. I can dress that up with index inclusion and the pullback — and the entry is defensible — but I'd be lying if I said there wasn't some part of me that just wanted to own more of the rocket. The trim was risk management. The redeploy was appetite. I did both in one click and I'm not going to pretend they were the same impulse.

So here's the rule I'm holding myself to, in print: SPCX is now capped in my head at ~12%. If SPCX grows beyond the size I can defend from fundamentals rather than excitement, I trim it exactly like I trimmed Micron — no falling in love, no “but the story.” I fixed one concentration this week. I won't spend next month explaining why I let the replacement grow.

The Bottom Line

One concentration down, one to watch

Ninety-eight days, an estimated +66%, and the trade I'd promised for five issues finally on the board: half my Micron sold, the book's single-name risk cut in half, the thesis kept intact. That part is real discipline, and I'll take the credit.

But I rolled the money into SpaceX on the eve of its Nasdaq-100 entry, and that's the honest complication. The entry was deliberate — after a pullback, into a real index-inclusion catalyst, and funded by harvested gains. The exposure is not conservative — a volatile, unprofitable IPO now sized at ~12%, with my whole space theme at ~32%. I solved a concentration and built one. Whether that was a smart asymmetric rotation or an exciting mistake depends on where SPCX goes from here, and I'll report it either way.

Next up is the real test of the whole tape: June CPI on the 14th, the Fed at month-end, and my own promise not to let the rocket become the new steak. The frontier is still the trade. This week I proved I can finally trim a winner — and gave myself a fresh reminder that where the money goes matters as much as that you moved it.

See you next Sunday, buddy. — Alex

§ Related reading
§ The frontier continues.

Get the next issue when it drops.

One sharp dispatch from the frontier: what changed, what matters, what I'm watching, what the evidence changed — and what the portfolio is doing about it.

No spam. No daily market sludge. Research notes only. Unsubscribe whenever.